聯準會(fed)的點陣圖不可以盡信

 

聯準會(fed)的點陣圖不可以盡信

它不是政策承諾，而是一群官員的預測： 點陣圖呈現的是聯準會每位官員對未來聯邦基金利率的個人預測，而不是聯準會的集體決策或政策承諾。這些點是匿名的，沒有人知道是哪位官員的預測。市場往往會將其視為官方指引，但聯準會主席鮑爾也多次強調，點陣圖並非承諾，只是基於當下資訊的預測。

經濟狀況瞬息萬變： 經濟是動態的，通膨、就業、全球局勢（例如關稅政策、地緣政治衝突）等因素都可能迅速變化，進而影響聯準會官員的看法。因此，點陣圖的預測價值會隨著時間的推移而降低，尤其是對於長期預測。

容易誤讀和過度解讀： 點陣圖的簡單呈現方式可能導致市場誤解或過度解讀。特別是中位數的變化，即使只有少數幾位官員的立場轉變，就可能導致中位數從「兩次降息」變成「一次降息」，進而引發市場劇烈反應。這在過去也曾發生過，例如2024年6月會議預測僅有一次降息，但實際上聯準會在9月啟動了總計1個百分點的降息循環，讓市場對點陣圖的可靠性產生疑慮。

不確定性高，官員也會猶豫： 在經濟高度不確定的情況下，聯準會官員自己也可能對未來利率路徑感到猶豫。有些官員甚至坦言，他們不希望填寫那份預測表，因為很難表達內心的不確定性。

溝通工具的爭議： 點陣圖作為聯準會的溝通工具，其價值也受到聯準會內部人士的反思和質疑。有人建議考慮取消點陣圖，或至少停止公布中位數，改為只揭露「預測範圍」和「集中區間」，以避免市場過度聚焦單一數值而產生誤判。

簡而言之
在不確定性高時，點陣圖參考性低。
有意外事件時，點陣圖參考性低。
在確定性高且無意外事件時，點陣圖有較高的參考性。

相關資料

聯儲會聲明及點陣圖對比：刪除「風險增加」表述且預測出現微妙變化

Fed傳聲筒：點陣圖成市場誤判關鍵？聯準會內部出現反思聲浪

The Federal Reserve’s Dot Plot Should Not Be Taken at Face Value (eng ver)

It is not a policy commitment, but rather a set of forecasts:

The dot plot reflects each Federal Reserve official’s individual projection for future federal funds rates, not a collective decision or a binding policy commitment. These dots are anonymous—no one knows which official made which prediction. While markets often interpret the dot plot as official guidance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly emphasized that it is not a commitment, but merely a forecast based on information available at the time.

Economic conditions change rapidly:

The economy is dynamic. Factors such as inflation, employment, and global developments (e.g., tariff policies or geopolitical conflicts) can shift quickly, influencing officials’ views. As a result, the predictive value of the dot plot diminishes over time, especially for longer-term forecasts.

Prone to misinterpretation and overreaction:

The simple visual format of the dot plot can easily lead to market misreadings or overinterpretation. For instance, a small change in just a few officials’ projections could shift the median estimate from “two rate cuts” to “one rate cut,” potentially triggering significant market reactions. This has happened before—for example, in the June 2024 meeting, the dot plot forecasted only one rate cut, yet the Fed began a full percentage point easing cycle in September, raising doubts about the reliability of the dot plot.

High uncertainty, even among officials:

In times of elevated economic uncertainty, Fed officials themselves may feel unsure about the future path of interest rates. Some have even admitted reluctance to fill out the projection form, as it is difficult to express their internal uncertainty in such a rigid format.

A controversial communication tool:

As a communication tool, the dot plot has sparked internal debate within the Federal Reserve. Some have proposed eliminating it altogether or at least discontinuing the publication of the median projection, suggesting instead that the Fed disclose only the forecast range or central tendency to avoid excessive market focus on a single figure that could be misinterpreted.

In short:
When uncertainty is high, the dot plot has limited reference value.
When unexpected events occur, the dot plot has limited reference value.
Only when certainty is high and no unexpected events arise does the dot plot have relatively higher reference value.