油價上漲不會導致Fed無止盡升息

(The increase in oil prices will not lead to an endless terminal interest rate hike by the Fed)

opec+幾個主要成員國自願性減產之後，市場上有一種很直覺的推論:

油價上漲所以cpi會繼續升，

cpi繼續升fed只好繼續狂升息，

fed繼續不斷升息最終經濟將衰退、股市下跌

看似有憑有據，言之成理，其實則不然:

一、關於油價上漲會使cpi繼續升

油價是否使cpi上漲也與基期因素有關，

2022年布蘭特原油均價約100美元/桶

目前(2023/4/6)則約85美元/桶，

其實今年油價對cpi的貢獻是會讓cpi下降

如果以去除油價、能源的核心cpi作為政策參考的依據

目前油價漲跌其實對fed利率政策的影響並不大。

二、核心cpi就算暫時壓不下來，fed也不會無止盡升息

利率升至限制性區間對通膨就會有打壓的效果，

並不需要無止盡的升息，

目前終點利率可能會落在4.75-5.25%此一區間

目前要問的是此一終點利率將維持多長的時間?

由於通膨具有僵固性，預測2023年底核心cpi會降至3-5%區間

與2%的目標仍然有一段距離，就算放寬目標為2.5%，仍是未達標

因此認為2023就會降息，多半是對通膨、利率政策有所誤解。

三、美國經濟是否會衰退?

如前所述，fed並不會無止盡的升息

一直到現在，fed仍在為經濟軟著陸而努力

2023/01的美國失業率創數十年來最低之水準3.4%

實體經濟狀況其實尚屬良好

要說美國經濟一定會陷於衰退，

為時尚早，需繼續觀察。

(英文版)

The increase in oil prices will not lead to an endless terminal interest rate hike by the Fed

After several major OPEC+ members voluntarily reduced production, there was an intuitive inference in the market:

Oil prices go up, so CPI will continue to rise, CPI continues to rise, Fed has to continue to raise interest rates, Fed continues to raise interest rates, and the economy will eventually decline, and the stock market will fall. 

Seems reasonable, but in fact it is not:

First, about the rise of oil prices will cause CPI to continue to rise. 

Whether oil prices will cause CPI to rise is also related to base period factors. 

The average price of Brent crude oil in 2022 was about $100 per barrel, while currently (April 6, 2023) it is about $85 per barrel. 

In fact, this year's oil price contribution to CPI will make CPI drop. 

If the core CPI is used as the basis for policy reference, the rise and fall of oil prices actually has little impact on the Fed's interest rate policy. 

Second, even if the core CPI is temporarily not suppressed, the Fed will not raise interest rates endlessly. 

Raising interest rates to the restrictive levels will have a repressive effect on inflation, and there is no need for endless rate hikes. 

At present, the terminal interest rate may fall within the range of 4.75-5.25%. 

The question now is how long will this terminal interest rate last? 

As inflation is sticky, it is predicted that the core CPI will drop to the range of 3-5% by the end of 2023, which is still far from the target of 2%. 

Even if the target is relaxed to 2.5%, it will not be achieved. Therefore, it is believed that rate cuts will be made in 2023, which is mostly misunderstood about inflation and interest rate policy. 

Third, will the US economy decline? 

As mentioned before, the Fed will not raise interest rates endlessly. 

So far, the Fed is still working hard to land the economy softly. 

The US unemployment rate in January 2023 was the lowest in decades at 3.4%. 

The situation of the real economy is actually still good. 

It is too early to say that the US economy will definitely fall into recession, and we need to continue to observe.